Valuable tips for the point rules settings

Valuable tips for the point rules settings

You want to make your prediction group as exciting as possible and reward risky predictions? Read our recommendations for setting up the points rules.

The points rules at Kicktipp are generally set as follows when creating a new prediction game:

Standard rule
Tendency Goal difference Result
Home win 2 3 4
Draw 2 - 4
Away win 2 3 4

This rule has the advantage that it fits all prediction communities, no matter if it's a tournament like a World Cup or a league like the Premier League.

However, there are better settings that promise more fun and excitement:

Recommendations for leagues with a home advantage (e.g. the Bundesliga)

In the case of classic football leagues such as the 1st Bundesliga, the home team has statistically a clear advantage. About 50% of all matches end with a home win, whereas only 25% do so with an away win and the remaining 25% correspond to tied matches (simplified approximate values).

The home advantage should therefore be taken into account in the points rule. Draws and away wins should be rewarded more because of the higher risk.

Otherwise, it would make sense to almost only predict wins, which makes a success of at least 50%. Such a home-win predictor is hard to beat in small prediction groups.

To punish this strategy, there are two ways:

The modified 9er-rule is recommended for smaller prediction communities under 50 members.

Modified 9er-Rule
Tendency Goal difference Result
Home win 2 3 4
Draw 4 - 6
Away win 4 5 6

With the modified 9-er rule, draws and away wins are rewarded higher. In this case, only the player who hits enough draws and away wins right can win. With this rule, you can no longer only rely on wins, as there are too few points for them.

Additionally or alternatively you can enable our strategy bans, which force a player to predict different results.

For prediction communities with more than 15 players, we suggest the use of the quota rule.

The odds are calculated from the predictions within the community. Because there are not enough predictions for smaller prediction communities, there may be distortions.

The quota rule is otherwise recommended for all prediction games. It is simply the best rule. The quota is dynamically recalculated with each prediction.

The quota rule computes the value for the correct tendency prediction from the prediction of all players. This gives you clearly less points for predicting a favourite team's win than for the outsider's victory.

Recommendation for tournaments (World Cup or Euro prediction games)

There is no clear home advantage during tournaments, except for the hosting team's matches. For tournaments, it is suggested to keep the standard rule or set up a quota rule.

Additionally, for Euro or World Cup predictions, you can increase the excitement and suspens by having different rules for the group stages and the K.O. phase. Since the group stage usually has significantly more games than the KO phase, most of the points would have already been awarded before the predicting the knockout phase.

It is then possible to allocate more points for the knockout phase and to keep the tension until the end. Of course, you can also increase the points several times as the tournament approaches the final.

But be careful: All increases should be moderate. Eventually, the best predictor should win and not the one who was right few times at the end.

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